Five Thirty-Eight - The guys over at Five Thirty-Eight look at the ebb and flow of voters between the parties. The data at least bears out that everyone loves a party until they actually pass laws. Then they turn all distracted boyfriend and lean back toward the other party. I think that this more like the slim sliver of moderates don't feel at home in either party, So they don't mind a protest vote, but they drop out when the parties lean into their ideology.